11.02.2024

A cautionary tale

When the newspapers and pollsters botched the result of the US election

Ahead of the 1948 election, Democratic president Truman, who had stepped up from vice-president after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt in April 1945, was not expected to remain in office. Opinion polls unanimously favored New York governor Dewey, the Republican nominee, to beat his less charismatic opponent. Per the Associated Press, indeed, Dewey was forecast to prevail over Truman by a margin of between five and 15 percentage points.

Truman, of course, won.

Except in Chicago, where the Trib famously jumped the gun and got it wrong.



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